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Next tax filing season is going to be "interesting". I'm already working through a scenario with an extension client who has a HELOC which is partially acquisition debt and partially not. Ironically he is hit by AMT in 2017, so I'm having to explain how the loss of part of the interest on the HELOC in 2017 will also be an issue in 2018 even though AMT won't be an issue for him then. In the past few days, another client asked a seemingly simple question about the tax benefits they would realize via a charitable donation of a car. The opportunities to mess up that answer were almost unending, and trying to logically explain all the permutations made it sound as though I was deliberately trying to obfuscate the issue. We really are going to need to rethink the stock answers we're been able to offer in the past to a number of fairly routine questions.

I agree with John's insight that it is wise to pay attention to what Block is doing--they have the resources to do the number crunching and projections. I think that the upcoming season will be booming for everyone due to all the confusion, but once people get the realization that itemizing won't do them any good and their refunds are shrinking due to lower withholding, that business will drop off. I read Block's conference call transcript, and there's a lot more going on. Interestingly, millennials comprised something like 35% of their new business--evidence that young people are now working and don't have time or inclination to learn taxes or attempt their own? I think the office closures are a response to competition. Back in the heyday of RALs, Jackson Hewitt and Liberty were opening offices wherever they saw Block's busiest offices. And where they opened anywhere else, Block opened to lure traffic away. Those days are over and Liberty in particular is losing franchisees, closing offices, and may be delisted. No need to have all those offices so close to one another if a competitor is gone. Block said most of the closures are within five miles of other Block offices, more like the distance used to be before they decided to out-office the competition. Block does know something, which is why they were on a mission to buy out small independents. Are they still doing that? They knew for some time that software would replace the easy-return market, and this week they acknowledged that they will do something about pricing. Didn't say which direction they would move prices, but they do charge a lot and likely can't see a way to justify the fee when a large share of their clientele no longer will itemize. When I worked there years ago, they said that changes in the tax law drew a lot of business. They staffed accordingly, and they were always right. I think this upcoming season will be crazy busy for all tax preparers. While those who no longer itemize may DIY after that, I don't think anyone who is self-employed (including the part-time gig folk, those who sell occasionaly on the internet, etc) will ever attempt their own return. Ditto for landlords. And with the magnitude of the changes under the new law, I believe a lot of preparers who were thinking about retiring will just do it rather than try to learn all the new rules and unlearn the old ones. That too will drive more business to those who stick it out.

Be careful, there is a waterfall (by/under a bridge) along this route. A stop to sight see here, has sucked many an hour out of my days.

I have wondered whether VA and other states will allow itemizing even if the standard deduction is taken on the federal. This woke me up, from the article, "H&R Block, like many tax practitioners, tends to charge larger fees for more complex returns. " I don't charge enough for more complex returns, so this is my gateway to step into reality.

I agree with you, John. I think that if I did a lot of EITC returns, or returns with itemized deductions being the main separation from a short form I would be very concerned. And even though I don't anticipate much impact on my business (at least not right away) I do suspect that if I want to sell my business and retire in a year or two, or four or five, this will probably impact the marketability of a tax firm in general. Time will tell - and it would be interesting to see if they anticipate growth in 2025 when the laws for individuals will revert back to their current status. I think it is 2025 - I don't plan to be in business that long.

I trust that everyone on this forum knows their client base and how the changes to the tax law might affect their behavior. But HRB is a large company with numerous resources to evaluate their business potential going forward. I doubt they are making the decision to close those offices on a whim. If I were following a business model which paralleled that of HRB in any meaningful way, I'd feel compelled to consider the implications of their business decisions and what their conclusions might suggest for my own future prospects.

In Oregon, where you are allowed to itemize on the state return even when you are taking the standard deduction on the federal return and the state standard deduction is very low, I anticipate no effect on my practice.

I think that it depends on your niche in this business. Most of my clients are probably either already filing short form, or they have businesses/farms/rental property and that won't be any simpler. I do very few returns that have itemized deductions only. I may lose a few clients, but I don't think that it will substantially impact my business.